The TVB hosted their annual Broadcast and Leadership
Conference during Advertising Week, focusing on the value of broadcast TV and
the local markets. What does the future hold for broadcast TV compared to digital?
Steve Lanzano, President and CEO TVB, led off the event with an assessment of
the role of digital and TV. Citing the recent Facebook measurement data
controversy, he said, “Fraud, viewability, lack of third party digital
verification – we take these things seriously. Marketers are now reassessing
their level of participation in digital. I believe the shine is off the shiny
new object. TV is still number one in influencing voters across the spectrum.”
It is true that TV is currently a top influencer but how
long will its dominance and ad revenue maintain? Marci Ryvicker, Managing Director Wells Fargo,
titled her presentation Broadcast Looks
Healthy! “Despite,” she said, “what the stocks may be telling us.” According
to Ryvicker, “Retransmission consent is a growing percentage of revenue and
share of EBITA. Broadcast is a must see, must have asset and a key asset in
this ecosystem. Broadcast will be in any successful skinny bundle. If TV
doesn't matter, why is Trump raising $140 million and spending most of it on
TV?”
But looking forward, she said that “Broadcast ratings are not
expected to be very strong. Stations, though, are maintaining their share. The
outlier is digital which is taking share from print but broadcast under performed
in the stock market.”
Jack Myers, Media Ecologist, MyersBizNet, offered his
forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Currently, 2016, with the Olympics and charged
Presidential election, is proving to be a healthy market for TV. “More
advertisers are looking at their digital expenditures,” Myers stated, and then
added, “In the upfront, CPG moved back to TV from digital. It was a
surprisingly strong upfront this year with CPM growth between 7% and 12% and
first quarter scatter is strong so far.” Data is playing a major role, along
with attribution. “There have been major shifts with data analytics at the core
of decision making. We are incorporating more analytics into the process.”
Myers anticipates that local/national spot broadcast TV is
projected to increase +12.5% in 2016 with legacy media garnering +11.8% and
digital +25%. But the picture changes in 2017 as the total percent change
declines -12.4% driven by a legacy media loss of -13.5% and a digital gain of
+5%.
The trends in consumer usage portend a more difficult sales
environment for traditional television in the longer term, but television
executives are exploiting digital opportunities at both the local and national
level. As Myers stated, “There can be a bigger upside and better use of digital
inventory in local markets. Local TV and radio have extraordinary opportunities
to tap into local shopper dollars. And mobile holds significant upside
potential.”
This article first appeared in www.MediaBizBloggers.com
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