Theories on NFL Performance Declines
Some
publications, like The Atlantic, ascribe the decline to
fragmentation of audiences, the national election cycle, changing viewing
patterns by Millennials, the erosion of the number of superstar football
players and must-see game rivalries. The
Atlantic article goes on to say that after ratings declines of -8% leading into
the national election, flat-to-down performances post-election and a -20%
playoff ratings decline compared to the first Saturday night playoff game of
2015, the conclusion is “At best, televised football is no longer a growth
industry, but merely a strong business that has peaked. At worst, this is the
beginning of a period of steady decline for the one thing on traditional
television that was never supposed to waver.”
Reisman, CEO/Founder of LEAP
Media Investments, points out “it’s true that the general media
environment – fragmentation and news -- is causing ratings leakage but through
our data (see details below) we found that there was also diminishing consumer
engagement with the NFL brand. Simply put, there is a decrease in emotional
attachment for the NFL in the market, which in turn can directly impact
engagement and viewership. “To be fair, year after year, we’ve seen that among
TV programming tent pole shows and events, the NFL is one of the most
emotionally attached media franchises among 18-64 year-olds. While the NFL may have a diminished Emotional
Attachment over the past two years – it is still top dog, still an
exceptionally valuable media property and the Super Bowl will inevitably remain
the most important media asset for years to come.”
Some media executives like David Poltrack, CBS Chief
Research Officer, remain optimistic. “One of the most important elements of the
fall television schedule is NFL football. As the coverage of the NFL by the
broadcast networks and cable networks has grown, so too have NFL audiences. We
believe that the major cause of the lower NFL ratings in the first half of the
season was the incremental competition from the coverage of the presidential
race. Since Election Day we have already seen NFL ratings improve,” he stated
at UBS’
5th Annual Global Media and Communications Conference . “There have been
many theories concerning the anomaly in NFL ratings. We've analyzed all of
these possible causes and do not believe there is any reason to conclude that
there will be any seminal change in the strong ratings performance of NFL
football,” he added.
While executives at marketers, agencies and networks look
beyond ratings and remain positive about the sustainable value of the NFL
franchise, there is fragmentation that tends to steer football viewers away
from viewing the game on TV. There is an over-abundance of opportunities to
view football off-platform that cull the most exciting moments, and, a wide
choice of Fantasy Leagues also syphon attention from viewing while focusing
fans on plays and players that contribute to their personal curated league. New
e-sports franchises like WinPlay are likely to accelerate this trend. Reisman
shares insights on how these emerging realities may be impacting attachment to
the NFL franchise beyond ratings.
Emotional Engagement as a Performance
Factor
LEAP’s audience data is based on a patented process that
quantifies a consumer’s emotional attachment - or bond - to a brand, then
creates a sophisticated look at like-audiences at scale. These include Brand
Enthusiasts (Fans) who are highly attached to a brand, Brand Conquests who are
moderately attached to a brand, and Brand Expansion audiences.
The percentage of fans who are Monday Night Football Enthusiasts
declined over a two year period. Enthusiasts are defined as those who are
extremely unwilling to give up a brand – or in the case of media -- extremely
unwilling to give up watching a particular show or franchise. LEAP’s EA® ratings tend to correlate with Nielsen
ratings. Further, the percentage of Enthusiasts not only declined among adult viewers;
there were even greater declines among men who viewed Monday Night Football
over a two-year period:
Enthusiasts
2014 2016
Monday Night
Football 28% 24%
Monday Night
Football Men 36% 29%
Source: Leap Media Investments
According to
Reisman fewer people (and fewer men in particular) feel strong loyalty to the
NFL brand. “They are more willing to give up watching Monday Night Football as
evidenced by the -14.3% drop (24% vs 28%),” he noted, “That would mean that the
NFL would have fewer enthusiastically engaged viewers. And the drop is larger
among men (36% to 29% a -19.4% drop) which could translate into viewers who are
less likely to watch MNF,” he added.
“But to be
fair, year after year, we seen that among TV programming tent pole shows and
events, the NFL is one of the most attaching media franchises among 18-64 year
olds. So while the NFL may have
diminished in its EA over the past two years, it is still top dog and still a
very valuable media property.”
How to Reverse Performance Declines
How can MNF
and the NFL reverse the erosion in enthusiasm? Reisman was philosophical. “Like
any brand – you focus on finding out why there is drop in EA – what factors are
driving that?” He recommended addressing the following questions:
Ø
Has the NFL possibly oversaturated the airways
creating lower engagement (e.g. I can always find an NFL game or watch clips
online – so why watch TV?)
Ø
How much has the media fragmentation impacted NFL
viewership and is declining viewership driving a decline in emotional
attachment, or vice versa?
Ø
Does it have to do with the potential long-term
effects of game play on players?
Ø
Does it have to do with scandals around players?
Is this widespread affecting other sports as well?
Ø
Does it have to do with other factors that can
be understood through further research and addressed?
Ø
Are consumers, especially young viewers, more
interested in other TV, video and digital entertainment options?
“Once you
understand why people are losing emotional attachment to the franchise you can
develop strategies and tactics to address (just like any other consumer brand),”
Reisman noted. “People are talking about
competition, distribution platforms, Twitter, leakage of subscriptions for ESPN,
player concussions, players sitting out the national anthem, the aging out of
the audience. Obviously there are a lot of factors but one factor that should
be taken into consideration is raw marketplace Emotional Attachment and
resulting engagement that has decreased as well. EA is leading indicator that
suggests there are simply fewer people who are highly attached to the NFL than
there were two years ago. This is the primary stakes of viewership. A factor
not looked at but should be considered is the franchise of the NFL and attachment
to that franchise is declining,” Reisman concluded. “Our data suggests this is
yet another factor that should be looked at seriously and addressed by the
league.”
Comments can
be addressed to Gary Reisman at gary@leapmediainvestments.com
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