The Media Crystal Ball

It is difficult enough to predict how the media landscape will look next year but it is arguably even more difficult projecting how things will look five years hence. A recent Mediapost event gathered some of the best industry minds together to share their thoughts about the state of the media state in 2023. Here is what they predicted:

TV Will Always Be Here

There was optimism regarding the robustness of the TV and the advertising business. According to Tom Goodwin, EVP, Head of Innovation, Zenith, “We tend to think that TV or advertising is dead but it is here to stay.” Further, there was a feeling that even old media has the ability to adapt and reinvent for the new digitized media environment. “The money keeps shifting to online and digital,” stated Brian Hughes, SVP, Audience Intelligence and Strategy, MAGNA. However, he believes that this momentum will slow that down and flatten as “old school media reinvents themselves.”

Delight the Consumer … or Else

Since consumers will have greater power to choose the ads they want to see, those companies that engage people in a negative way may experience blowback. Barry Lowenthal, President, The Media Kitchen, said that, “Facebook will be the big loser’” in the next five years because they fail at the “fundamental human truth” regarding shame about envy. “Facebook peddles in envy. Most feel bad about themselves after seeing Facebook,” he explained, “and you can't sustain a business on envy.”  He predicted that unless Facebook reinvents itself, they will lose money. “It is better to drive to gratitude,” he concluded.

There is also the thought that unless companies respect the consumer by providing them with relevant messaging (without getting creepily intrusive), consumers may decide to opt out and withhold their data and their attention. “Consumers will be in control of their data. GDPR will precipitate that,” noted Natalie Monboit, SVP, Futures for Samsung, Starcom USA, who added, “There will be a shift to drop data when in doubt. Consumers will have more self-sovereignty.”

Streamlined Processes Through Technology

Whether it’s the continuing increase in the amount and type of available data, the introduction of blockchain protocol into the media business, the use of artificial intelligence or the boundaries of privacy, all these issues will impact how we conduct our business five years from now. Monboit noted that, “Blockchain could be the one thing that disrupts today,” and has the potential to change the business.

Finally, it is important for media companies to continue to take risks. Sam Olstein, Global Director Innovation, GE Corporation, concluded that the biggest challenge today is the mindset to avoid more risks. Spending money on things that don’t pan out is “never wasted because it laid the bedrock for the next entrepreneur to benefit from previous mistakes.”

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

A Look at the Upfront Now and in the Future.

The upfront is just getting started and already there are prognosticators reporting that the decline in revenue will continue from last year. Wayne Friedman, Mediapost West Coast Editor, who moderated the first panel at the recent Outfront, wondered “whether or not we are in a new upfront paradigm. Are we on verge of perhaps two consecutive upfronts where there has been declining volume? In the past 25 years only four seasons had spending declines. Each one rebounded the following year.’ 

But what about this year? Will the declines continue and if so, what does that mean for the business? It seems to me that it all comes down to consumer behavior and fragmentation of platforms. If devices continue to offer consumers more on-demand content choices and the television technology – VOD, connected TV, OTT - continues to increase in both distribution and adoption, the business opportunity for selling traditional television in the old upfront model will inevitably shrink and need to change to a model that fully captures cross platform and digital …. in as close to real time as possible. That means currency cross platform measurement, dynamic ad insertion and maybe real time bidding. This could keep a traditional media executive awake at night.

Friedman asked each of his panelists what discussions they were having with their clients. Helen Giles, Director National Broadcast and Video Integration at Lowe Campbell Ewald said, “We look at look at individual client needs and where the audience is.” Chris Geraci, President National Broadcast Investment at OMD agreed, “We always start with the clients. We look at media as video and have an agnostic approach to it. Video is now consumed on more diverse array of platforms than ever before.” 

Some were weighing the value of buying in the upfront.  “What if I didn't do the upfront?” said Jason Kanefsky, EVP Strategic Investments for Havas Media, “We have this discussion at Havas. What is my ceiling for price and what is my alternative? It used to be the idea of the fear of being shut out. And that fear is what has driven the market. Fragmentation makes us less fearful.” Maureen Bosetti, EVP Group Director National Broadcast and NY Operations for Optimedia posited, “What is the value we can yield from the upfront? Is it the best programming and the flexibility? Why are we in the upfront?” And Gibbs Haljun, Managing Director Media Investment for GroupM noted that, “The upfronts is the futures market. It depends on what are we doing from a brand and client perspective. Many investments are being done closer to lead time. But it is based on individual clients.”

That is now. Looking forward five years to Upfront 2019-2020 and there was little consensus as to what to expect. Barry Lowenthal, President of Media Kitchen, see programmatic as the future. “We have been bullish on programmatic and took back from our trading desk to do programmatic all by ourselves. It is the very center of what we do. The best insights come from data driven media buying.” However Kris Magel, Chief Investment Officer, Initiative is less convinced. He said, “Programmatic is overused.” And Adam Kasper, Chief Media Officer, Havas Media sees a sea change going forward. “It is incrementally different this year. We are shifting from traditional to digital and it is an important shift. Are upfront commitments necessary? I am not sure it will be I existence in five years. Maybe we will go directly to content creators.” Kasper also saw, a “revolution coming in the measurement space.”

It is difficult to make any forecast in this turgid media environment but if agency executives are questioning the future of Upfront as we know it, it is certain to change in a meaningful way. As Joe Mandese, Editor in Chief for Mediapost said, “We have reached an inflection point where things really are different.” How different still remains to be seen. Stay tuned.

Thsi article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com