Kantar Looks at the Midterms and Political Ad Spend for 2022

 

Political ad spending has always been an important component in media advertising. But in recent elections cycles, spending is breaking records and becoming even more important as candidates strive to get their messages to the voting public.

Massive Political Ad Spend

Ad spending for the 2022 Midterm election, especially on the local level is, “is one for the record books,” according to Steve Passwaiter, Vice President Growth and Strategy, Kantar. His presentation at the recent TVB Forward Conference demonstrated that TV continues to be the epicenter of political spending with over $4.5 billion committed to Local Broadcast TV alone so far this Midterm cycle. And it continues to grow as we get closer to Election Day. “We are over 50% in broadcast from 2018,” he noted. As a result, Kantar has continued to adjust its overall projections, now to $9 billion across all media.

Activity is not just robust for the House and Senate races. Even gubernatorial races are factoring into greater ad spend. For local broadcast in particular, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Georgia, Phoenix lead the markets in political advertising this cycle.

Political Messaging

In terms of messaging, Passwaiter noted that Republicans are focusing on the economy as it is impacted by inflation and the cost of groceries while Democrats, also focusing on inflation, speak more towards the impact of corporations on consumer prices and the legislation that has been passed to protect the consumer. Democrats are also focusing voter attention on the impact of overturning of Roe vs Wade and the deterioration of reproductive rights protections which has become an especially strong talking point among female candidates.

Our ability to predict the results of the Midterms has been put to the test. The early general theory was that Republicans would win the House and it would be a toss-up for Republicans vs Democrats for the Senate. But even with just a few weeks before the election, any outcome is possible and the differential between national and local sentiment is stark. “It is a tale of two elections,” compounded by, “President Biden’s approval ratings,” Passwaiter explained. “Interestingly, for all of the distrust in the Federal government today, state and local governments are actually polling well,” he added.

Senate, House and Governor Races

There are 35 Senate seats up for election. Six of these races are already spending over $100 million and two more – North Carolina and New Hampshire – are expected to reach that lofty level of spending soon. Eight of these races, according to Passwaiter, appear to be battlegrounds, “and all of them are close, even Rubio in Florida which has taken a few folks by surprise.”

In terms of advertising contributions, six Senate races have already crossed into the nine figures, he noted, with both Mitch McConnell Republican and Check Schumer Democratic PACs as the biggest spenders. Some of the biggest races in this category are Senator Warnock in Georgia and Senator Kelly in Arizona.

There are 36 gubernatorial races across the country which is important because, “governorships tend to be good training grounds for the presidential candidates and there are at least three of them that are leaning in that direction,” Passwaiter shared, “Newsom in California, DeSantis in Florida and JB  Pritzker in Illinois.”

While the political terrain continues to shift and candidates jockey for position, the real winners of the Midterm election cycle might just be media companies with political ad spend continuing to reach new heights. Get ready to predict the Presidential race and subsequent ad spend in two years.

Photo by Charlene Weisler

 

First published in www.MediaVillage.com Thought Leaders

 

Post-COVID Data Proves Gyms Are Back, and They Are Packed

Americans are getting back on their feet … and getting to the gym, according to Lorraine Pyne, Vice President, Sales and Marketing at Zoom Media. Her company owns and operates GymTV, which broadcasts in 5000+ health clubs across the U.S., Canada and the U.K. A preliminary look at traffic data indicates that month over month, not only is gym usage increasing at a healthy pace, but Americans are slated to match and possibly exceed pre-COVID level gym attendance by July.

This is a first-look at post-COVID gym traffic. Following up on this optimistic trend, Zoom Media is partnering with Kantar, a leading marketing research and insights company, to launch a qualitative study on behaviors and attitudes of those who are now getting back to the gym. This information will then be combined with Kantar's large quantitative base of data. This synergy helps deliver more granularity in the measurement. "That is what we get from our Kantar partnership," Pyne explained, "They've done a great job in providing us the data that we need to propose our media impact and report results to our clients more granularly."

Will Koning, Chief Data Officer at Kantar added, "We collect check-in data from gyms and use primary research data to convert the check-in data to audience insights including behavior, dwell time, ability to view GymTV, etc." From there, the data is converted to impressions, reach, frequency, and other standard media planning metrics.

Zoom Media's Traffic Tracker

The first step in this marketplace analysis was a review of Zoom Media's traffic tracker of the 3700+ GymTV locations across the United States. "It shows average monthly gym visits measured pre-COVID all the way to date," Pyne stated. The results are very encouraging and point to a strong rebound in gym attendance."

In terms of the major takeaways, Pyne shared that, "From the data, we are seeing that there is a high return to and enthusiasm for the gym. In just the month of April, we saw over 51 million visits to our GymTV locations nationally." Of course, it would be unfair to compare these results to pre-COVID level but, Pyne asserted, "Our latest gym attendance, even with capacity limits, is already at 65% of visits pre-COVID. Therefore, what we are projecting at this point, based on the positive data trends we are seeing, is that with 100% of our partner gyms open and expanding capacities as well as our month-to-month increases, that gym attendance will be close to pre-COVID levels by July 1, 2021."

This data reflects a national footprint across all 50 states and in over 190 DMAs. There was some regional variation in the data based on capacity limits, but "we've seen an increase across most markets if not all," Pyne added. Demographically, the initial traffic when gyms first started reopening was largely from young men, "but now we are definitely seeing a balance between men and women."

Koning noted that, "The audience currency we produce is from the gym chains. They provide the check-ins and we process that data using data science techniques to ascribe the data that we get from the primary research. "Check-in data alone doesn't tell the full story of the visit, therefore, ascribing the check-in data enables Kantar to ascertain behaviors such as the areas of the gym where activity took place and duration of the stay, "whether they have been wearing headphones, so whether they can hear the ambient audio or not," among other behaviors, "so as to get a very comprehensive t understanding of who has seen the content and ads on GymTV and for what period of time so we can determine actual impressions, demographic breakdown and whether they were paying attention to the screens," he explained, including recall.

Next Steps

Zoom Media and Kantar are about to launch the second phase of this qualitative study in early June which is much more in-depth. This portion of the study will incorporate a range of data sets including, "Google Mobility data to track and accurately report changes in behavior based on time, day, duration, demographic and frequency which allows us to model behavior even more granularly," Koning shared, adding that Kantar can also add audience data that Zoom Media gets directly from their partners.

"We are doing a custom study of consumer insights that gives us a better analysis of the behavior and interests of our gym goers. We will be able to put those two data sets together to tell a really robust story on our audience. Not just a quantifiable one but a qualitative one," Pyne noted, "We consider demographics to be a bit antiquated. It is more viable for brands to look at audiences based on lifestyle and interests and it gives our clients much more opportunity to really connect with their audience and show that the brand understands them and what drives them."

Feeling Optimistic

The surge in gym traffic is no surprise to Pyne. "We expect to see unprecedented traffic to gyms in the fall and winter," she predicted. "Because of the pandemic, the awareness and the importance of a healthy, active lifestyle is higher than ever before." And with the current strong growth in gym attendance, Pyne sees it as, "the light that we have all been waiting for. It is a sign that life is finally returning, maybe a new normal, and people are getting out of the house. The increase in gym traffic shows us that more and more people are not just going outside again, they are prioritizing their health."

After a tough year, the massive adoption of healthy, active lifestyles represents a move (or rather, a sprint) in the right direction.

 

This article first appeared in www.MediaVillage.com

 

The World is Changing. Stephen DiMarco, Chief Digital Officer, Kantar on the COVID-19 Barometer Study

How is the COVID-19 virus influencing consumers’ behaviors, attitudes and expectations? Kantar has a pulse on the subject according to Chief Digital Officer Stephen DiMarco, with the recently released COVID-19 Barometer. 

This global study measures, “the perspectives of over 30,000 consumers across more than 50 markets. The study answers questions like, ‘How are behaviors and attitudes changing?’, ‘How should my brand be responding and supporting our consumers?’ and ‘Which touchpoints are now more relevant’ among others. It is designed to help the marketing industry help lead reactions within their businesses in the coming weeks and month,” he explained

The first wave of research was conducted between March 14-23, covering consumer attitudes, media habits, impact on online/offline purchase behavior, and expectations from brands. The second wave was conducted between March 27-30. 

Weisler: Have you seen differences and changes wave to wave?

DiMarco: Here are some of the key differences we saw in Wave 2 compared to Wave 1:

      --  Globally, 52% say their day-to-day lives have now been impacted by the current situation – up from 39% in wave 1.

       --  Financial concerns outweigh personal health concerns. 68% of people say the situation demands more proactive financial planning (up from 62% in wave 1), and 60% (vs 53% in wave 1) are worried about the economy’s ability to recover.

      --  Millennials are feeling the most severe impact financially. 78% of 18-34-year olds say their household income has or will be impacted by coronavirus, compared to 71% overall.

      --  National media channels, such as nationwide TV channels and newspapers, are still seen as the most trusted source of information, with 54% of people identifying them as a trustworthy source (up from 52% in wave 1).

      -- Trust in government websites has increased to 54%, vs 48% during wave 1 of the research, suggesting that as the severity of the pandemic increases, people are increasingly looking to their government for information and support.

      --  47% (41% in wave 1) of people expect companies to support hospitals during the crisis, while 39% (35% in wave 1) say that companies should be making themselves available to governments.

Weisler: Were there any surprises?

DiMarco: I think we were initially surprised by how much people are not concerned with getting sick. Their fears are around impact on their daily life (including financially) and the economy, but not actually contracting the virus. Trusted sources of information differ by country. When thinking through this it makes sense, but it does highlight some of the distrust of government/media in the US specifically.        We don’t see a lot of ‘new’ online purchasers, so while online shopping is becoming more prevalent it is not necessarily because of new people trying online shopping. People seem to think online purchasing will increase in the future, but going to the store is one of few excuses to leave the house for many.

Weisler: What about concerns by age and gender? 

DiMarco: With Age, generally, concern is high but grows with age; the 69% of the youngest (18-24) are concerned, and each age group progressively increases through to the 55-64-year-old group, where 79% have high concern. In China, concern is higher than the world average, with 90% or greater of each age group showing high concern. In Italy, concern is more aligned with the global average (in the 71-80% range), and follows the trend that younger consumers are slightly less concerned than their older counterparts. In the US, concern is lower than the global average in almost all age groups (except 35-44, 79% highly concerned). Even fewer younger people show high concern, only 64% of 18-24 and only 57% of 25-34. With Gender, generally, females show greater concern than men – 77% to 70%, respectively.

Weisler: What 50 countries are included?

DiMarco: Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovak Republic, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, UK, Ukraine, US, Vietnam 

Weisler: What are the differences in attitudes by country?

DiMarco: We looked at some of the key countries being covered around the pandemic – China, Italy, and the US. Concern regarding the virus seems to follow the timeline of geographic spread (greater in China, then Italy, then US). Italy indicates the greatest impact on daily life, while China has especially low expectations on the economic future. Consumers in the US and China indicate higher preparedness in terms of increased shopping.

 Weisler: And what about concerns by key markets? 

DiMarco: In China, concern is much higher (as we saw with age), but is even among females and males (93% & 94%). In Italy, concern is much higher in females (83%) than males (71%). In the US, concern is slightly higher among females (59%), but not a huge gap to male counterparts (56%). 

Weisler: What would you say are the topline takeaways? 

DiMarco: We found:

      --  Staff welfare should be a company’s first priority – brands looking after their employees and offering flexible working are the top two concerns of consumers.

      --  There is still a place for advertising – consumers still find this useful, and continuing to communicate will help brands recover faster. As media behaviors change, there are new opportunities to reach people – consider adapting online and social media strategies as the pandemic progresses in each market.

      --  Consider messaging and advertising strategy carefully – there’s a fine balance between being seen as helpful vs profiteering, so ensure the right tone to build brand.

      --  Financial concerns are a #1 worry, as more than half of people globally (52%) say their day-to-day lives have now been impacted by the situation.

      --  News consumption is up, as people seek to stay informed.

Weisler: What do you think this means for the future?

DiMarco: This will cause a forced trial of new brands because of price sensitivity, availability, where people are shopping could lead to long term changes in purchase behavior. Focus on hygiene is likely here to stay and could cause changes in behaviors: Sustainability, Cashless purchases, Hygiene related behaviors.

This article first appeared in www.MediaVillage.com

Facilitating the Conversation Between AI and Voice with Kantar and Pulse Labs

The recent announcement of a Kantar partnership with Pulse Labs has the potential to change the “conversation” regarding AI and voice as well as to address the growing number of questions about the space. I sat down with Nick Nyhan, Chief Digital Officer, Kantar, and Abhishek Suthan, CEO, Pulse Labs to get further insight.

Charlene Weisler: Can you please give a quick overview of the partnership? 

Nick Nyhan: Voice is not new but voice as an automated platform is fairly nascent. As voice emerges as the new big platform, being made available by many big platform companies, there are some big decisions to make and questions to answer, such as: how will consumers take to it and for what reasons?  Where should marketers and brands extend themselves but not go too far?  How will the platform find its sweet spot in people’s busy lives and where might it replace something else or add to it?  Where are the use cases that will be suitable for large adoption among early, middle and late adopters?  How will this platform compare to other digital media platforms?  How can the platform companies use the language and meet the needs of different consumer groups, and find those sweet spots between consumer convenience, commercial-models and ensure consumer-controlled listening?  Kantar has been answering these questions for many years, and with Pulse Labs, we can combine expertise areas to answer these bigger questions for clients.

Abhishek Suthan:  Our partnership with Kantar was born from the recognition that the data and understanding we have from the voice platforms, while valuable on its own, could be greatly enhanced when combined with broader market insights. Much like any brand's voice strategy is best understood and executed as an integral part of a larger market strategy, consumer voice behavior is best understood and analyzed as an integral part of a broader consumer picture. 

Weisler: Can you share some usage figures on voice assistants today and where you project it in the next 2-3 years? 

Suthan: To start, there are about 75 million smart speaker owners in the US, and almost 150 million globally, and those numbers are only going to keep rising. Right now about 25% of digital radio listening happens on smart speakers, and that more than doubled in 2018. But the really big story over the next two to three years won't be the continued rapid growth of metrics like these, but the spread of voice assistants from smart speakers into many other devices - particularly within the car. Just yesterday, McDonalds announced the acquisition of a voice technology company and the creation of a research lab to bring voice tech to its drive-thrus. It doesn't require much stretching of the imagination to see a world where we'll be able to place orders via voice directly in our cars while we drive to our favorite restaurants. And that's just one of many applications on the horizon.

Weisler: How are you linking to Kantar?

Suthan: We're still working out all the possible ways we can find synergies for our respective data sets. However, we've been able to effectively combine data from Kantar's consumer survey panel with voice behavioral data from Pulse Labs.

Weisler: What types of datapoints and metrics will you offer?

Nyhan: We will bring attitudinal and behavioral data in various combinations that make sense to the client question at hand.  Some may require actual interaction data between consumers and the platform (Hey Google, Alexa), whereas some may require a larger study of consumers attitudes via survey or field observation.  We want to be able to bring the right data from real consumers. 

Weisler: Do you have some preliminary takeaways and if so what are they?

Nyhan: We see adoption entering a second phase, past early adopters and into a second group: people who were given the smart speaker as a gift, or only use it play music.  As the audience grows,  use cases will need to be refined and experiences will vary as experimentation explodes and everyone learns. 

Suthan: It's remarkable how much people are using their voice assistants to create quick reminders, like shopping lists. One thing that's notoriously difficult in audio advertising is tracking how well consumers remember ads, and what actions they inspire. Well, today, if you're listening to an advertisement on the radio that sparks your interest, and you're listening on a smart speaker, you're able to immediately take action on it by, for example, adding an item to your shopping cart. The problem is, brands haven't had a way to track things like that. Well, now we can help with that, and this is just one example. 

Weisler: How are you insuring privacy? 

Nyhan: Voice is a great area but some are fearful there is listening going on that they didn’t approve. At Kantar, we want to do all our insights work – not just in Voice - with compliant permission-based data, that is our plan here too.  As such we approach this to fit within all the rules of GDPR and CCPA. 

Weisler: What are your initial deliverables and what future deliverables are you building? 

Suthan: Right now we're working with select partners on customer research, while building overview metrics and dashboards for general consumer behavior on voice devices. The future deliverables will be determined by what our customers are interested in and want to know.

Weisler: How can advertisers and creators use the results? 

Nyhan: Marketers can use the results to drive their Voice strategy, see what consumers like and don’t like in the category, how their brand would fit in, how the experience is from a consumer POV, and where they can lead or play fast follower. Just like copy or concept testing, Kantar and Pulse Labs can help content creators pre-test their ideas in a smaller way before it goes to wider release and see if it is meeting everyone’s expectations of a good experience.    

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Connecting With Consumers in the Global Market. An Interview with Kantar’s Heath Greenfield

Keeping up with new research technologies is no mean feat. The blending of data, from different platforms, devices, channels, qualitative and quantitative studies is proving to be both expansive and challenging. 

A recent breakthrough is the announcement of the launch of the Kantar Marketplace which Heath Greenfield, Kantar’s Chief Operating Officer, explained is, “a one-stop, research and insights store that includes key offerings across Kantar’s portfolio of solutions, self-serve or with Kantar consultancy.”

Charlene Weisler: What does the Marketplace offer?

Heath Greenfield: It is a platform that meets the evolving needs of our clients who need data, insights and consulting faster and more affordably. Custom projects on the platform can be delivered in as little as six hours and Quick Polls delivered in under an hour. As data and research continue to become more real-time in nature, these speeds will move closer to becoming table stakes. Kantar Marketplace was initially launched with several elements. With the first element, Expert Solutions, clients access to a self-serve or serviced version of our Link pre-testing solutions and a serviced version of Ad Now that measures in-market advertising performance. Currently available in beta, Quick Polls and DIY Surveys will provide clients faster, more cost effective ways to meet their needs.

Weisler: How can it be used with different media platforms?

Greenfield: Link Now, Link Express and Ad Now can be used to evaluate multiple forms of media including TV, digital video, digital display, print and out-of-home. Our Link Now for Digital solutions show ads in fully functioning live contexts (Facebook and YouTube) and provides a reflection of people’s mindsets, distractions and interactions, and an evaluation of ad performance.

Weisler: What data do you collect and use?

Greenfield: Kantar collects survey responses using validated solution frameworks and proven survey questions. For example, our Link solution is validated to both short-term and long-term sales. Clients have confidence that the data from these studies will provide reliable insights into how their creative will perform after launch.

Further, we often collect behavioral data, such as facial-coding data and clickstream data, using proven techniques to provide additional insight and value to our clients. These behavioral data sets will be available soon in the platform. 

Weisler: What is the profile of the 80 million consumers?

Greenfield: Kantar has access to over 80 million respondents across dozens of countries worldwide. Within this reach of 80 million, Kantar has both discrete and direct access to the largest globally connected sample sources available. This will benefit our clients in that we will maximize the feasibility of low-incidence targets, as well as the speed and quality of data collection.

Weisler: How do you collect the sample?

Greenfield: Generally speaking, Kantar collects data according to the objectives of the study and the sample resources available in the relevant country. Initially, for solutions on Kantar Marketplace, we will leverage online samples for data collection across multiple devices, such as desktop and mobile. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art platform will manage all sample supply via our proprietary ‘quality first’ de-duplication sample management engine.

Weisler: Do you match the results with other datasets and if so which ones?

Greenfield: Through our partnership with CINT, Kantar will have the ability to connect to over 20 million permissioned profile attributes. Connecting additional profile attributes will enable our teams to analyze the data along a variety of dimensions to provide more insights to our clients.

Weisler: Give me some examples of the insights you have found from the sample.

Greenfield: Our Link Now for Digital solution helps client in several ways including: Optimizing their digital ads to avoid the skip and maximize in-market success, Confirming which of several ads will best achieve their goals, Seeing if an effective ad in one country will work in another, Finding out how their competitor’s ads are performing and Helping clients develop creative best practices for future digital ads.

Weisler: How do you think GDPR will impact research and data collection in the US?

Greenfield: GDPR has already impacted research and data collection in the US, especially for global companies like Kantar. For example, Kantar Marketplace – available in the US and dozens of other countries – was designed to be GDPR-compliant. Fortunately, the scale of Kantar’s permissioned panels worldwide ensures that, post-GDPR implementation, the voice of the customer can remain central to decision-making.

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com