Tomorrow Will Be Televised … and Predicted

I know from years of experience that predicting viewer behavior and the performance of programs is as much of an art as a science, which is why I was happy to participate in a recent Simon Applebaum podcast for his program Tomorrow Will Be Televised. Marc Berman, Programming Insider's Founder/Editor-in-Chief, and I sat down and discussed various aspects of the TV landscape. The overarching subject was how TV was performing so far in 2020 and where it might be going as the year progresses- an imposing subject especially during a pandemic.

The Big Story So Far in 2020
For me, the biggest story for 2020 so far is the uncertainty and sense of unknown. Will we get a second wave of the pandemic? Will consumers regain their confidence? How will that impact advertisers? From a measurement perspective we have seen over the past six months an expanded use of screens, a jump in co-viewing as families are sheltering-in-place and children are attending school virtually. We have also seen a great increase in news viewership to inform us about unprecedented past events as well as the upcoming election.

Berman concurred. "We are in a world of unknowns now. We don't really know what is going to happen. Anything can happen." He noted that finally in the previous week, the five broadcast networks announced what they are planning for the new season. "But the question is will they be starting the fall season in the fall?" Last season, he pointed out, there were 17 new series, 36 new shows. This year we have only 8 new TV shows. "What they are doing is using content from other sources to fill the schedule." He added that another unknown is live sports. "Will we have Sunday night Football? I don't know." I added that the absence of live sports, such as NFL Football could depress ratings.

The pace of production is a concern according to Applebaum, whether in LA or New York. "Everyone is on pins and needles as to when the shows will be produced," he stated. "When the coronavirus pandemic started there were 70-75 scripted TV shows that were in production here in New York. Pilots that weren't made and we don't know when production will be coming back."

A Cause For Some Optimism
My note of optimism here is the sudden availability of what I call "origination content" from sources such as, for example, the Metropolitan Opera that are streaming past performances from their library or the ability to sample programming from international providers. This enables viewers to sample content from a range of heretofore undiscovered sources. Discovery is a positive aspect of all of this uncertainty.

For Applebaum it is the smart TV which is the center of all of the activity. "We are seeing more people watch television over their Smart TV sets and smart devices, subscription, the major services such as whether it is Disney+ or Apple+ or Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon. We are seeing more Smart TV services get off the ground," he noted. And advertisers are taking note of this trend.

Add to this the various new uses for these screens such as online wellness – meditation and yoga – gaming, virtual meetings that bring people together, so the screen will expand as it becomes smarter, I added. It is also humanizing a lot of the talent when they broadcast from their homes, offering fans a way to connect even more to their favorite hosts. "It's an interesting situation," stated Berman, "because in the time of uncertainty … it's almost a creative challenge and there is a lot out there to consume." For Berman, he couldn't imagine a show like American Idol as working virtually, "but it did work. The contestants were at home performing and it felt personal. It felt comfortable."

Data, Program Production and the Viewer
With all of these wonderful streaming services and new places to discover content, the researcher in me is a little worried about how all of this will be measured. There are still many walled gardens and our ability to compile all of these proprietary data sources continues to be challenged. For the viewer it is a great opportunity to see more content. For the industry, it may be a challenge collecting the data.

Berman wondered if there is a tipping point where there are so many choices and the viewer gets fatigued. But with all of the potential new and co-productions being available through the myriad of services, it may spark viewer enthusiasm as it increases choice. "The way to make all of this work, financially as well, is (co-production and partnerships) as a growing trend," he stated, "The content has been stellar."

With all of this content out there, how can your programming be discovered by the consumer? Marketing plans will have to be re-evaluated and very creative to best navigate all of the available platforms and opportunities to view. "I've been noticing a lot of live events," noted Berman, who attended a special event for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel before the pandemic, "They were making it more interactive, more live. That is on hold now but maybe it will go back again."

The future may be uncertain but one thing is sure, the media industry remains an indispensable element in people's lives and what happens in the next six months may set the tone for the foreseeable future. Certainly a medium that continues to offer compelling, original content in flexible formats is here to stay … providing we can figure out how to best measure it.

This article first appeared in www.MediaVillage.com

Parsing the Media Prognosticators

After attending a range of media events in 2013, I found that there were pronouncements and predictions at one conference that often contradicted those at others. Is cord cutting generational, shaved or non-existent? What is responsible for the slow pace of a standard cross platform measurement? What is the future of set top box data and Big Data in general? How will (choose one or more) dynamic ad insertion, addressable advertising, programmatic buying etc impact the sales side of the industry?

Some interesting assessments could be found at the VideoSchmooze Online Video Forum which offered lively de-constructions of media shibboleths. Nothing was sacred.  And because it was scheduled in December, it provided a last word, of sorts, before the end of 2013.

According to industry analysts Craig Moffet and Bruce Leichtmen, there are conflicting stories in the press about whether cord cutting, Netflix, fragmentation, the bundle, the internet, you name it, is a threat to the standard business model. Their session “A Deep Dive into Video’s Tectonic Shifts” demonstrated that all is not what it appears to be.

As we look back at 2013 and forward to 2014, Moffet’s and Leichtman’s provocative panel separates the truth from the hyperbole. See a short video here.

 

Cord Cutting

Is cord cutting an issue? According to Moffet, cord cutting de-accelerated in 3Q13. That means it is going down, unlike what was reported in the mainstream technology press at the time. The fact that it was misreported as accelerating indicated to Moffet that “it speaks to a desire in the tech press for parables – overthrowing the oppressive MVPDs. But the math tells you otherwise.” Yes, there are those households that are cutting the cord. “There is no question that people are cutting the cord but it is not a torrent. It is a trickle.”

Pay TV

What does seem to be losing ground is Pay TV and that is because cord cutting, or lowering your media bill is economically driven.  Moffet noted that the past twelve months were the worst performing months in Pay TV history. Why? “Economic reasons and alternatives at the low end of the spectrum” posits Leichtman. Young people actually crave full subscription cable and are deferring their subscriptions until they can afford it. Moffet, citing a sample of one – his 27 year old daughter – reaffirmed this theory. “If you have cable it means that you are rich and it is cool to be rich”, he says, she says.

Netflix

Somewhat surprisingly, Netflix was cited as a company that has a “dirty little secret” according to Leichtman. “Netflix churn was 70%. Now it is 50%. It is low price and high churn which gives it a low barrier to entry and a low barrier to exit. Netflix is up to 32 million subscribers but its target is 60-90 million.” Obviously this has not negatively impacted the stock price but it is still surprising to hear. However, Netflix can hurt the ecosystem by gaining rights to programming from the studios and networks which may undervalue certain content. In fact, Moffet says that licensing to Netflix is like crack to the networks. “The networks are addicted to licensing content to Netflix.” The problem will exacerbate at the time when digital demands only the good content from networks instead of all content.

Bundling

Don’t expect unbundling to happen anytime soon according to Moffet. “It is harder to blow up the ecosystem than you think. The reason you can’t get networks unbundled is that programmers don’t want to sell it that way.” The forced packaging of smaller niche networks (or highly expensive but not universally popular networks) with their larger mainstream siblings keeps both programmer and MVPD profitable.

The future of media is still to be written. But right or wrong, many of these ideas are provocative and make good talking points. It remains to be seen whether they have stamina in the marketplace and predictability of what will come. Stay tuned.

Q&A Interview with Simon Applebaum, blogtalkradio

Simon Applebaum is a media veteran whose work reporting television news and trends spans over 30 years. Simon is currently on the forefront of off-platform media, hosting a weekly radio blog on www.blogtalkradio.com. This provocative interview by Charlene Weisler highlights Simon's perspective of the current media environment across a range of topics including the broadcast vs cable model of affiliation, the move of Jay Leno to primetime, the future of PBS, Internet TV, privacy and some predictions for the future.

There are six videos below with the following topics and lengths:

Subject / Length (in minutes)
Background, Industry Changes / (5:52)
Broadcast and Cable Models / (8:03)
Jay Leno / (5:54)
Internet TV and Privacy / (5:00)
Future of PBS / (9:36)
Predictions and COntact Information / (4:26)




Charlene Weisler interviews Simon Applebaum. Simon talks about his background and how the media industry has changed over the past few years.





Simon Applebaum discusses how the broadcast affiliation model cannot survive and how it will have to evolve to the more successful cable affiliation model.







Simon Applebaum offers his opinion about NBCU's programming decision to strip Jay Leno Monday through Fridays at 10p.




Simon Applebaum discusses Internet TV and the issue of privacy concerns in this video.




Simon Applebaum gives his prognosis about the future of PBS.




Simon Applebaum concludes with some predictions for the next five years and information on how to contact him.