Predictions for 2020. Something Old Something New.

With another New Year and CES this week, it is customary to look ahead and offer some predictions on how we think the next year will parse out for media. 

It is repetitive to note that we are an industry in transition but, perhaps, it is not as common to say that there might be things that will stay exactly the same. After polling some executives and taking into account what I have seen, here are some possible trends for 2020:

Going (Even More) Global

With the further advancement of datasets, ways to interpret trends and the perfect storm of privacy legislation from GDPR, CCPA and others, there should be a greater shift to more universal best business practices and global insights. I personally see a greater combination of hyper local, regional, national and worldwide media confluence on a business, technological and creative side. This could be accelerated by the move from GRPs to impressions measurement that should link all platforms onto a common metric, the increase in interest in international content consumption (Think: HBO Nordic) and maybe somewhat by ATSC 3.0 which will continue to roll out, albeit very slowly.

There will be expansion in OOH as well. “More ‘non-traditional’ out-of-home companies are tapping into the opportunities to monetize their screens and audiences,” noted Michael Provenzano, CEO, Vistar Media who added, “From vending machines (Vengo) to EV charging stations (Volta) to kiosks of all sorts (KeyMe) to gym equipment (Life Fitness), new types of hardware and service providers are incorporating OOH into their operations, while new types of venues, from sports entertainment facilities (TopGolf) to cannabis dispensaries (Enlightened), are connecting advertisers with their unique audiences.”

For some, the many datasets available will lead to a more global measurement approach. “There has been a wide expansion of the number of research companies producing data and metrics for a wide range of media insights,” according to Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity. “2020 will (bring) new ways of understanding consumers and viewers will be ingrained into the current system of media planning and buying in more holistic ways than ever before where insights become a part of the advertising currency.”

Increasing Complexity and Simplification of Ad Markets

With more complex choices to reach consumers there will also be more unification. From business consolidations connecting various properties to measurement systems that automate and link various sources, media is at once converging and multiplying. As Tom Xenos, Director Advanced TV, Omnicom Media Group, asserted, “Advanced TV advertising will grow as the analysis of data becomes more automated and plays a key role in decision-making.”

OTT will also expand, according to Hanna Gryncwajg, VP of Enterprise Accounts for TVSquared, who stated that, "In 2020, OTT will scale as it becomes a regular, trusted part of the video mix that can be consistently measured and optimized for performance, alongside linear.” She also sees that, “Advertisers will bring OTT and linear measurement together in a single platform, evaluating performance across devices and breaking it down by days, dayparts, channels, genres, creatives, and then using those insights to consistently optimize."

For Jane Clarke, Managing Director CEO, CIMM, the infrastructure of measurement will advance in 2020. She predicted, “Progress will be made on standardizing ad identifiers throughout the media ecosystem (that will) inch closer to real-time measurement,” while, “pilot tests of DAI on Smart TVs will begin to evolve into commercial offerings,” and, “manufacturers will begin to incorporate DAI technology into television sets.”

Technological Change May Slow Down

As much as we anticipate great technological changes to continue, such changes may not occur as fast as we expect. Take for example cloud technology. Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Amazon has reversed its long time policy of only offering cloud software services and is now pushing hybrid cloud systems and hardware.  Why? Because many businesses are not moving to the cloud as quickly as Amazon predicted and further, some never will. It is possible that business’ capacity to incorporate new technology may reach a temporary saturation point this year where adoption will slow until business practices can catch up.

Some believe that social media may hit a brief wall. “Why?” posited Mike Menkes, SVP, Analytic Partners, “Because fewer people are using social and/or are likely to decrease their usage during the upcoming election year.”  In addition, “Ad costs for social are going up. Brands should keep a close eye on their metrics and adjust spend based on where their users will be spending their time.”

Opportunities for Polymaths

Want to figure out the best career path? Want greater job security? Try Research and Data. And if you add a more qualitative skill set to that, like anthropology or even philosophy, your professional prospects should be unbeatable as you can combine right and left brain problem solving.  The ability to develop elastic thinking to tell stories culled from very disparate datasets are talents compiled from a range of different disciplines and experiences. New Year’s resolution – Take art class.

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Impeachment Hearings Were Big OOH Events According to Tunity

Tunity just released the results of the OOH usage for the Impeachment hearings that began on November 13, 2019 and were covered in total or in part on ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, and PBS. The topline results were covered in Tunity’s newsletter. 

In addition, Paul Lindstrom, Tunity’s Head of Research and Analytics offered these other, exclusive insights. To Lindstom, the impeachment hearings were as every bit as popular among OOH viewers as some major sporting events, attracting millions of viewers. 

Audience Performance

“Across the entire hearing each of the three cable networks drew substantially higher audiences than usual. I compared the hearing time periods to comparable ones for the week of Nov 4th.  Across the entire time CNN indexed 336 versus the benchmark week. Fox News indexed a 186 and MSNBC a 287,” he noted. The greatest increases in usage came from 18-49 and 25-54 year olds across all three networks. There was a gender skew, depending on the network. CNN increases were more likely to come from men while Fox News and MSNBC were more likely to come from women.

Viewing By Venues

Depending on network, viewers tended to watch the hearing from a range of venues. Across all three broadcast networks there was a greater percentage of OOH viewing coming from offices than compared to the benchmark week with the percent distribution indexing from 110 to 153 across the networks. 

Airports and other transportation centers made up a greater percentage of the OOH viewing to CNN and Fox News than the benchmark week with indices of 214 and 142 respectively. According to Lindstrom, “Overall CNN had a larger percentage of their OOH viewing coming from Hotels, Schools, Colleges, and Government Facilities than usual. Both Fox News and MSNBC received a larger percentage of their viewing from Bars and Restaurants.  Correspondingly all showed a substantially lower percentage of their OOH viewing coming from Gyms which is a prime OOH viewing location for news.”

He posited that, “Significant news events drive viewership in locations that might not usually have news on their screens or don’t have their screens on, thus allowing for a wider range of viewing opportunities.” But, he noted, the Impeachment hearings couldn’t compete with the Cohen and Kavanaugh Hearings, “both of which had substantially higher average audiences in the mid to upper 4 million range across all networks compared to 2.7 million for the first day of the Impeachment Hearing.”

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Out of Home Scores a Goal for Women’s Soccer

Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity, made a startling discovery when data started pouring in for the Women’s World Cup soccer games. “I looked deeper at the numbers for several games and came up with a few conclusions which prove the high numbers are truly a phenomenon,” he stated.

Here are a few key insights:

Ø  Women’s soccer was a strong performer out of home. The U.S. versus England match was the #1 televised soccer game year to date OOH and was the tenth highest sporting event year to date at 8.5 million OOH viewers. The U.S. versus The Netherlands final delivered 6.9 million viewers.

Ø  Women’s soccer beats Men’s soccer. The U.S. versus England game as well as the final versus the Netherlands beat the 2018 men’s world cup final OOH which delivered 4.6 million viewers OOH.

Ø  USA vs. England ranks #10 among the top 20 sports shows of 2019, in a field dominated by football and basketball and during top championships like the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and NCAA Tournament.

Ø  Total OOH usage during the USA vs. France game (6/28/19, 7.8MM) was up +225% over the previous Friday, June 21. The game also ranked as the #1 and #2 program for OOH viewing for the week across every venue. During the game’s time period, the venue breakdown is as follows: 84% of total OOH usage, 91% of OOH viewing in bars/restaurants, 89% of OOH viewing in offices and 51% of OOH viewing in gyms where the primary focus is not necessarily on TV viewing.

Ø  USA vs. France was tied for the youngest OOH audience among a range of selected high-profile games and the male proportion of viewers remains high, in line with NBA and NHL OOH viewers, yet higher than events like the NBA Draft and The Kentucky Derby. The game is much younger than OOH usage as a whole and has a substantially higher percentage of men.

The numbers should continue to impress as the team prepares for next season. Stay tuned … no matter where you are.

This article first appeared in Mediapost.

When it Comes to Out Of Home, Venues and Events Matter

Out of home measurement for major events such as the Mueller Report and Tiger Woods’ win on the final day of the Masters Tournament offer insights into what the viewing preferences are for venues such as gyms, offices and bars/restaurants.

Venues matter for time sensitive events. Tunity just released data that shows that in general, peak usage times for viewing are different depending on the venue. Offices and gyms peak from around 8a-11a, while bars/restaurants peak first around 4:30 and again from 8-10p, suggesting that bars peak at the earlier time and restaurants at the later time. “Several key influences to take into consideration,” noted Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research & Analytics, Tunity Analytics, “are location and traffic patterns.”

The differences in venues coupled with specific events can impact viewership and the reasons for paying attention. “Our research points to people specifically visiting bars and restaurants to view programming, especially major events like the Super Bowl or an awards show. On the contrary, the viewing that takes place in gyms and offices is opportunistic and the audience size is less influenced by fluctuations in traffic because the primary reason for being in those locations is not to watch television. Changes in gym viewing reflect more or less people who are already there and choosing to view,” said Lindstrom.

OOH impact on overall viewership levels is often impressive, especially when it involves a big news or sporting event. The William Barr release of the redacted Mueller report on 4/18 garnered a 2,956,300 average total OOH audience on CNN and Fox, according to Tunity data. Tiger Woods winning at the Masters on 4/14 delivered 6,924,040 on CBS and the first day of March Madness on 3/21 delivered an overall 4,119,320 on CBS/TruTV/TBS/TNT. Lindstrom explained that, “When we look at (these major events), we see a correlation between the locations, specific types of content, and the magnitude of lift associated with that content.“

According to Lindstrom, Tunity data “shows how the combination of each network’s share lift combined with the total available OOH audience and choice of viewing is a factor in evaluating the dynamics of the OOH audience for that content on that network.” This is something that Lindstrom believes has never before been documented for OOH viewership. “Location based segments have proven to be an excellent way to profile the audiences,” he asserted.

Sound, or lack of it, plays a pivotal role in measuring the impact of OOH viewing. “The traditional method of measuring OOH viewership calculates a program’s audience based on the presence of audio. However, in most OOH locations TVs are muted or there is too much ambient noise to calculate exactly which show is being viewed,” he said. Because Tunity Analytics measures viewing based on a program’s video feed, “it allows us to pinpoint exactly which show and network a viewer is enjoying. We can then further extrapolate by adding in location data.”

This article first appeared in Cynopsis.

Tunity Super Bowl Coverage Kicks to New OOH Heights

One of the best places to view the Super Bowl game is in a bar, but until recently, this large OOH audience could not be adequately measured. One company, Tunity, has been measuring out of home for a couple of years and released their Super Bowl data results.

Super Bowl 2019
Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity, noted that Super Bowl viewing both this year and last “had its greatest usage in bars and restaurants, as one would expect.” And while they do not have commercial log information at this time, they found that program versus commercials performed similarly. The reason is logical in many ways, according to Lindstrom. “In a curated environment you can’t change channels in the same way that you do at home. This means that the commercials are more likely to be on the screen and the screen continuing to remain on the show in question. Also, OOH is fundamentally all live therefore there is no dealing with DVR playback, etc. The differences in audience minute to minute are going to be with audience migration to or away from the set/location.”

2018 vs 2019 Super Bowl OOH
Lindstrom reported that last year, Tunity saw an average 21,026,860 OOH viewers to the NBC telecast of the Super Bowl. This year, the average was 23,672,607 OOH viewers to the CBS telecast – an increase of +12.5%.

He pointed out that “this is not the pattern that has been indicated by Nielsen for in-home estimates. I suspect that there is a difference in the in-home versus OOH environments, where in a situation like the Super Bowl, people plan to be there and are committed to a certain length of time. It is less subject to the vagaries of people deciding to turn off a game when they are home on their own.”

The Super Bowl is by far the largest OOH event measured with year to year growth. Lindstrom has no doubt that the game was the highest measured audience ever since Tunity began reporting.

Related Topics: Measure Up

This article first appeared in Cynopsis. 

Tunity OOH Data Reports College Students Glued to the Supreme Court Hearings. Will It Impact the Elections?

The recent Supreme Court hearings for Brett Kavanaugh not only sparked greater in-home viewing for news, the event also caused a surge in out-of-home viewing. Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity, shared his company’s data with me and we discussed the insights drawn from it.

When it comes to OOH, it is location, location, location… and sports. Lindstrom explained, “It is clear to me that there are dynamics in terms of traffic to locations and there are dynamics in terms of curation. These two factors combine to create the potential for a dynamic profile in terms of users at any given point in time.” He believes that the Kavanaugh hearing is a great illustration of OOH having the ability to draw all types of viewers in who might not normally view news on TV or not necessarily be watching news OOH.  Notably, he referred to the ten-fold upswing of viewing in colleges and airports and that the viewing to CNN skewed much younger.

Charlene Weisler: Overall, how did the full Kavanaugh hearings do OOH? What were the overall takeaways?

Paul Lindstrom: Overall the Thursday session of the Kavanaugh Hearing averaged 4,035,400 OOH viewers according to Tunity Analytics for the full 10 AM to 7 PM duration. The highest overall usage occurred during the first portion of Kavanaugh’s testimony.  The OOH usage, according to Tunity Analytics, returned to nearly the same level following a drop during his break.

Weisler: Overall how did the hearings rank among all Tunity OOH programs ever? 

Lindstrom: The overall OOH average viewing levels for the Thursday full session were comparable to what we have seen for the Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs. This is pretty remarkable given the weekday daytime time period for the hearing versus prime time for the NBA Playoffs.

Weisler: Is this the highest news event?

Lindstrom: This is the highest audience level for a news event since January of this year when I began to track this data.

Weisler: How did the hearings do comparatively in the time period?

Lindstrom: In total OOH usage was up almost 2.5 times indexing at 247 over the same hours from the previous week. CNN and Fox News received the bulk of the OOH increase indexing 755 week over week for CNN versus 431 for Fox News. CNN has historically gotten larger bumps in OOH usage for major news events than Fox News despite Fox News generally having larger OOH audiences on a day to day basis. It appears as if it is a curation issue. CNN is more likely to be tuned in at locations that are generally not carrying news during that daypart. Both Fox News and CNN brought in substantially younger audiences OOH they normally do. These young audiences found places to tune in.

Weisler: What OOH venues did the best?

Lindstrom: I think that this is a question that can be answered in two ways. First, the location with the largest degree of OOH viewing of the hearing on CNN was Offices. This was followed by Bars/Restaurants and interestingly Airports and Gyms. The three locations which showed the largest indices for week over week changes in overall OOH usage were Government Buildings, Colleges, and Airports.

Regardless of political persuasion we should all be encouraged to see the large increases for Colleges where viewing was up more than ten-fold. Airports had a week over week index of 825 compared to 247 for all locations and Government Buildings, not surprisingly were up twenty-fold.  Let me illustrate this using CNN as an example, although Fox News would show similar patterns. We see that the share of all OOH usage in this daypart was in single digits for most locations (Offices and Government buildings being exceptions) during the 10AM to 7PM time period for September 20^th – the week prior to the hearing. CNN’s share of total OOH usage rose to 26 to 53% across all locations.

Weisler: And what tuning during the voting process and aftermath such as the announcement by Susan Collins?

Lindstrom: On Friday 10/5 Susan Collins announcement was seen by 2,232,300 OOH viewers on CNN and Fox News combined. This represented an increase of over 1.5 million OOH viewers compared to the hour prior. The audience returned to the normal viewing for the hour following the announcement. CNN accounted for 1,342,000 of the additional audience.

The results of the final vote drew in OOH viewers but not to the same extent as Friday. CNN and Fox News combined for 1,113,000 viewers at the peak of 4 o’clock. This represented an increase of 478,930 over the prior hour for the combination of networks. Interestingly on Saturday the increase in viewership was split nearly evenly between Fox News and CNN. The difference between Friday and Saturday in regards to increase in OOH viewing was almost entirely a result of CNN not getting the same magnitude of boost they did before. This is likely a curation issue. CNN has historically gotten the greatest lift for breaking news as a result of locations that do not normally carry news tune to CNN.  It is reasonable to assume that on the weekend many locations that do not normally have news on but tune in to CNN for breaking news did not because of the heavier degree sports programming.

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com