Predictions for 2020. Something Old Something New.

With another New Year and CES this week, it is customary to look ahead and offer some predictions on how we think the next year will parse out for media. 

It is repetitive to note that we are an industry in transition but, perhaps, it is not as common to say that there might be things that will stay exactly the same. After polling some executives and taking into account what I have seen, here are some possible trends for 2020:

Going (Even More) Global

With the further advancement of datasets, ways to interpret trends and the perfect storm of privacy legislation from GDPR, CCPA and others, there should be a greater shift to more universal best business practices and global insights. I personally see a greater combination of hyper local, regional, national and worldwide media confluence on a business, technological and creative side. This could be accelerated by the move from GRPs to impressions measurement that should link all platforms onto a common metric, the increase in interest in international content consumption (Think: HBO Nordic) and maybe somewhat by ATSC 3.0 which will continue to roll out, albeit very slowly.

There will be expansion in OOH as well. “More ‘non-traditional’ out-of-home companies are tapping into the opportunities to monetize their screens and audiences,” noted Michael Provenzano, CEO, Vistar Media who added, “From vending machines (Vengo) to EV charging stations (Volta) to kiosks of all sorts (KeyMe) to gym equipment (Life Fitness), new types of hardware and service providers are incorporating OOH into their operations, while new types of venues, from sports entertainment facilities (TopGolf) to cannabis dispensaries (Enlightened), are connecting advertisers with their unique audiences.”

For some, the many datasets available will lead to a more global measurement approach. “There has been a wide expansion of the number of research companies producing data and metrics for a wide range of media insights,” according to Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity. “2020 will (bring) new ways of understanding consumers and viewers will be ingrained into the current system of media planning and buying in more holistic ways than ever before where insights become a part of the advertising currency.”

Increasing Complexity and Simplification of Ad Markets

With more complex choices to reach consumers there will also be more unification. From business consolidations connecting various properties to measurement systems that automate and link various sources, media is at once converging and multiplying. As Tom Xenos, Director Advanced TV, Omnicom Media Group, asserted, “Advanced TV advertising will grow as the analysis of data becomes more automated and plays a key role in decision-making.”

OTT will also expand, according to Hanna Gryncwajg, VP of Enterprise Accounts for TVSquared, who stated that, "In 2020, OTT will scale as it becomes a regular, trusted part of the video mix that can be consistently measured and optimized for performance, alongside linear.” She also sees that, “Advertisers will bring OTT and linear measurement together in a single platform, evaluating performance across devices and breaking it down by days, dayparts, channels, genres, creatives, and then using those insights to consistently optimize."

For Jane Clarke, Managing Director CEO, CIMM, the infrastructure of measurement will advance in 2020. She predicted, “Progress will be made on standardizing ad identifiers throughout the media ecosystem (that will) inch closer to real-time measurement,” while, “pilot tests of DAI on Smart TVs will begin to evolve into commercial offerings,” and, “manufacturers will begin to incorporate DAI technology into television sets.”

Technological Change May Slow Down

As much as we anticipate great technological changes to continue, such changes may not occur as fast as we expect. Take for example cloud technology. Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Amazon has reversed its long time policy of only offering cloud software services and is now pushing hybrid cloud systems and hardware.  Why? Because many businesses are not moving to the cloud as quickly as Amazon predicted and further, some never will. It is possible that business’ capacity to incorporate new technology may reach a temporary saturation point this year where adoption will slow until business practices can catch up.

Some believe that social media may hit a brief wall. “Why?” posited Mike Menkes, SVP, Analytic Partners, “Because fewer people are using social and/or are likely to decrease their usage during the upcoming election year.”  In addition, “Ad costs for social are going up. Brands should keep a close eye on their metrics and adjust spend based on where their users will be spending their time.”

Opportunities for Polymaths

Want to figure out the best career path? Want greater job security? Try Research and Data. And if you add a more qualitative skill set to that, like anthropology or even philosophy, your professional prospects should be unbeatable as you can combine right and left brain problem solving.  The ability to develop elastic thinking to tell stories culled from very disparate datasets are talents compiled from a range of different disciplines and experiences. New Year’s resolution – Take art class.

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Advancements in Cross Platform Measurement

CIMM, the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement recently held its annual Cross-Platform Media Measurement and Data Summit. This year’s conference focused almost exclusively on cross platform which is the hot issue among both media buyers and sellers.

CEO and Managing Director, Jane Clarke, announced CIMM’s 7 criteria for cross platform measurement at the conference. She explained, "CIMM developed our 7 Criteria for measuring cross platform exposure of both content and ads in order to let research vendors know the solutions that the end users are seeking for measuring unduplicated reach."

During this time of media transformation, these seven criteria help to form a foundational consensus for the industry. 

CIMM’s Seven Criteria For Cross Platform Measurement

      1.       We need to go beyond panels. Panels alone are too small to be the only measurement solution for the cross platform world. Panels are also unable to account for out of home viewing - an issue for some networks, notably CNBC. Linda Yaccarino, Chairman, Advertising Sales & Client Partnership is addressing this issue, as she explained, “CNBC Daytime is no longer relying on Nielsen for C3 ratings.”

      2.       We need passive measurement and solutions. The least amount of intrusion is optimal as a myriad of devices vie for viewers’ attention. Manish Bhatia, comScore’s Chief Revenue Officer, noted, “No matter what the media is, passive electronic measurement has been viewed by the industry as the most accurate approach to capturing and reporting media behavior accurately. That is what comScore is doing.”

      3.       Census data are needed across all platforms. As with the importance of going beyond panels, CIMM acknowledges that census level data is needed for all platforms. Clarke explained, "It's important that we point out the need for hybrid combinations of panel data with census-like data across all platforms, including TV Return Path Data." “The data is there to count every consumer“, noted Time Warner Cab le EVP & COO, Media Services, Joan Gillman, “We are only starting to scratch the surface.”

      4.       Measuring individuals is optimal but measuring households is also useful. Targeting households and their behavioral dynamics can also provide actionable insights for marketers. According to Eric Schmitt, EVP Communications and Media at Allant, “Standard household-level segments and ad impression counts across inventory pools, platforms and MVPDs are essential to keeping national TV advertising competitive with the scale and efficiency of online alternatives."

      5.       Measure ads and programming separately. The sooner we move to separate measurements of ads and programs, the better according to Jed Meyer, Global Research Director at Annalect who said, “We are moving from a world of content-based buying to audience-based buying and future measurement systems need to reflect this shift.” The reason, according to Schmitt is that, "Measuring ad audiences is different than programming measurement.  Advertisers have specific segments they want to reach, while programmers are usually looking for as many eyeballs as possible.

      6.       We need common units of analytics and metrics for reporting.  Tom Xenos, MediaVest’s Vice President, Audience & Measurement Solutions believes that, “If we’re ever to make sense of the new cross-media world, we need to adopt a common set of metrics for measuring and evaluating audiences.  Otherwise, we’ll just continue to have a media tower of Babel.” But the quest for common metrics is challenging. When asked which metrics are most important, there was a range of responses. Fernando Arriola, VP and Media Integration, ConAgra Foods, said, “Brand health and sales, how many unduplicated people see the message”, Yaccarino said, “Total audience delivery,’ and Erin Matts, Chief Marketing Officer, Annalect, averred, “The best proxy for sales varies by client. The more metrics are better. The access to a variety of metrics allows us to customize and makes our job easier.”

      7.       Implement an asset identification open standard. CIMM is in the process of crafting an open standard for media asset identification using EIDR and AD-ID, utilizing consultant Chris Lennon, President and CEO, MediAnswers, to help in SMPTE standardization. He explains, “We sent out an RFP and are now gathering test content and refining our test plan to best assess respondent technologies. (We are) also developing a SMPTE Recommended Practice that we will publish along with the eventual Standards document(s) that come out of this effort.”

With these criteria in place, the pace of cross platform measurement solutions should accelerate. An industry-based solution could be close at hand. Let’s hope soon.

This article first appeared in www.MediaBizBloggers.com

Research is the Industry’s One-Armed Paper Hanger

I have written many articles about changes in our industry. We talk about how change is impacting the core mechanics of how we do our jobs, upending our long cherished metrics and data sets and setting even the most complacent executive into shudders.  But in truth, there are some in our industry who believe we are in a comparative lull.

At the recent ARF Re:Think, Keith Weed, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer at Unilever quoted industry notable Shelly Palmer who said, “Change will never be as slow as it is today.” That might be true, but still to many of us, the rate of change today is unprecedented and at once uncomfortable, vexing, fascinating and exhilarating.

A big part of this change is due to the advancements and access-ability of Big Data which is the bailiwick of Research and Analytics Departments. But the data is coming fast, furious and silo’d. So how does Research keep up? I asked a range of researchers at the ARF about what their priority was in the next six months here are the videos and here their stories:


Charlene Weisler asked notable industry executives what their top priority will be in the next six months:

Charlene Weisler talked to a range of industry experts who outlined their current major projects:

Cross Platform

Many across the media spectrum – from suppliers to agencies to organizations to networks - cited cross platform measurement as a top priority. CIMM CEO Jane Clarke said, “What CIMM is going to focus on is what we have been focusing on over the past few years - finalizing our cross platform measurement service with comScore called Project Blueprint. It is measuring unduplicated reach across television, radio, smartphones, tablets and computers across three media, video, audio and text.” Joan Fitzgerald, SVP Television and Cross-Media Services comScore, concurred, “We are continuing to concentrate on making cross media measurement a reality in the marketplace today.”

Tom Xenos, Vice President, Research, MediaVest said, “One of the biggest things coming up is to better understand cross media measurement - How to get the data, how to understand duplication, how to know what is driving what medium to what platform and having it all come together.” Tom Ziangas, SVP Research for AMC Networks added that he is committed to “coordinating our Big Data efforts to report and understand Video Cross-platform viewing behaviors.”

Targeting

But the media world is not solely focused on cross platform. For Leslie Wood, Nielsen, it is “Targeting. Everything we learned about targeting came from mass media where if you got it wrong you still reached a lot of people. But now that we can precision target, it really matters. What can we look at in our data that gives you the insights you need to make good decisions.”

Mobile

Mobile is the 600 pound gorilla in the measurement room.  According to Josh Chasin, CRO comScore, “What we are going to be working on is holistic measurement solutions that bring TV and digital measurement together and I think it will be around the nexus of mobile measurement.” Graeme Hutton is focused on mobile and its intrinsic synergies with television. He said, “If I had to do one thing over the next six months it would be to look at the interaction between television and mobile. Mobile and TV are known to work strongly together. But I want to know why. Understanding the ‘why’ is very important. The principal way to do that is through neuroscience.”

Data Integration Platforms

Harnessing Big Data is a big priority for many. For example, Bruce Goerlich, CRO Rentrak, is concentrating on data integration. He said, “We are just about to release the Rentrak Analytic Platform which will have respondent level data in it. It will be 500,000 homes in the beginning going up to 2 million. There will be many types of analyses that you can do on this huge data set providing stability, granularity and insights.”

OTT

For Mike Bloxham, SVP Magid, the priority is “the over the top and SVOD marketplace which has the capacity to be very disruptive and has ramifications across the business. If we see a continuation of what we have seen in the past 18 months in terms of viewing figures on broadcast and cable, advertisers are starting to think about how that will impact the way in which they use TV to reach mass audience.” 

Bringing the Next Generation Up to Speed

Change impacts not only those of us in the industry but also those who one day may join the industry. CRE facilitator and NYU Professor Richard Zackon is currently focusing on how to keep his summer audience measurement class at NYU up to date. He explains, “Every year about this time I begin to prepare for my class and every year I have to throw away about 5 or 10% of the material because it is out dated. This year I am going to have to throw out about 30% of my material. I have a lot of catch up work in basically every fundamental topic.”

Can we as a group of researchers manage to keep pace? I am hopeful. There are enough of us taking on a range of different challenges to assure that there will be some progress.

This article first appeared on www.Mediapost.com.

ARF Re:Think 2014 Celebrates Research

Why is this year’s ARF Re:Think different from other Re:Thinks? For one it is Gayle Fuguitt’s first conference as chief of the ARF. For another, there has never been so much great research presented, at one time in one conference.

The media landscape has seen an explosion of viewing content possibilities. And Media research, with the increasing amount of Big Data intelligence, has become the epicenter of business performance solutions. Which is why having events like Re: Think are vital to get the issues and measurement solutions out into the media ecosystem.

This year on Day 1, the focus was on cross platform measurement solutions, impact of mobile and social media datasets to understanding today's consumers and their media usage. Day 2 was on creative strategy and Day 3 was dedicated to the next generation of researchers and how to fortify career paths.

There are several important industry priorities in my opinion including cross platform measurement, integrating big data into currency measurement and preparing the next generation of researchers. I polled several top researchers at the conference and asked them what their top research priority was and the range of their answers was significant. Here are their responses:

In the area of cross platform measurement, Project Blueprint, now in phase two, is positioned to become a standardize-able way to combine the measurement of television, tablets, mobile, computers and radio into one measurement platform. Brands are “looking to get better measurement across all touch points and combinations to optimize investments” according to Amaya Garbayo of Kellogg. But the industry is still fairly silo’ed. MediaVest’s Jeff Chaban said that cross platform measurement, “is not where it needs to be but we are making significant steps.” Artie Bulgrin of ESPN, a major supporter and contributor to Project Blueprint, is experiencing success in monetizing cross platform for his networks. He said, “ESPN is an outlier in that 80% of our deals are done on cross platform.”

In the Big Data realm, there are advocates who see the vast potential of unlimited datasets containing media usage, consumption and shopping collected and combined to produce meaningful, insightful and actionable results. There has been a lot pf press about using STB data to help political campaigns win elections. Allant is partnering with Comcast Spotlight to using STB data to pinpoint voters on a hyper local level. Allant’s Eric Schmitt noted that it is “interesting how quickly political campaigns adopted the techniques (of using big data in their campaign targeting). They see success and jump on it…. Political is spurring (STB data use in) other industries.” Announcements like the TIVO / Symphony AM partnership that combines STB data with passive audio app media usage data adds to TIVO cache of data including Fourthwall, TRA and shopper data.  All of these big data sets combine to form a clearer picture of viewer to shopper ROI. But we need to do more. Lee Garfinkel of Draftfcb believes that we are “not using new world of data to its full potential. 90% of ads have been mediocre and still are.” Yet Keith Reinhard, chairman emeritus DDB spoke for those who believe that we could get carried away by the sheer enormity of big data. “There is a difference between big data and a big idea. The haystack is now so enormous we can't find the needle or we find something that is not the needle.” Obviously great data interpreters and data story tellers are critical.

We may never all agree on the path to cross platform or the value of big data and how it is used in our industry but it is nice to have a forum to present findings and air all the opinions and insights. That is the value of the ARF and its research conferences.