Predictions for 2020. Something Old Something New.

With another New Year and CES this week, it is customary to look ahead and offer some predictions on how we think the next year will parse out for media. 

It is repetitive to note that we are an industry in transition but, perhaps, it is not as common to say that there might be things that will stay exactly the same. After polling some executives and taking into account what I have seen, here are some possible trends for 2020:

Going (Even More) Global

With the further advancement of datasets, ways to interpret trends and the perfect storm of privacy legislation from GDPR, CCPA and others, there should be a greater shift to more universal best business practices and global insights. I personally see a greater combination of hyper local, regional, national and worldwide media confluence on a business, technological and creative side. This could be accelerated by the move from GRPs to impressions measurement that should link all platforms onto a common metric, the increase in interest in international content consumption (Think: HBO Nordic) and maybe somewhat by ATSC 3.0 which will continue to roll out, albeit very slowly.

There will be expansion in OOH as well. “More ‘non-traditional’ out-of-home companies are tapping into the opportunities to monetize their screens and audiences,” noted Michael Provenzano, CEO, Vistar Media who added, “From vending machines (Vengo) to EV charging stations (Volta) to kiosks of all sorts (KeyMe) to gym equipment (Life Fitness), new types of hardware and service providers are incorporating OOH into their operations, while new types of venues, from sports entertainment facilities (TopGolf) to cannabis dispensaries (Enlightened), are connecting advertisers with their unique audiences.”

For some, the many datasets available will lead to a more global measurement approach. “There has been a wide expansion of the number of research companies producing data and metrics for a wide range of media insights,” according to Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity. “2020 will (bring) new ways of understanding consumers and viewers will be ingrained into the current system of media planning and buying in more holistic ways than ever before where insights become a part of the advertising currency.”

Increasing Complexity and Simplification of Ad Markets

With more complex choices to reach consumers there will also be more unification. From business consolidations connecting various properties to measurement systems that automate and link various sources, media is at once converging and multiplying. As Tom Xenos, Director Advanced TV, Omnicom Media Group, asserted, “Advanced TV advertising will grow as the analysis of data becomes more automated and plays a key role in decision-making.”

OTT will also expand, according to Hanna Gryncwajg, VP of Enterprise Accounts for TVSquared, who stated that, "In 2020, OTT will scale as it becomes a regular, trusted part of the video mix that can be consistently measured and optimized for performance, alongside linear.” She also sees that, “Advertisers will bring OTT and linear measurement together in a single platform, evaluating performance across devices and breaking it down by days, dayparts, channels, genres, creatives, and then using those insights to consistently optimize."

For Jane Clarke, Managing Director CEO, CIMM, the infrastructure of measurement will advance in 2020. She predicted, “Progress will be made on standardizing ad identifiers throughout the media ecosystem (that will) inch closer to real-time measurement,” while, “pilot tests of DAI on Smart TVs will begin to evolve into commercial offerings,” and, “manufacturers will begin to incorporate DAI technology into television sets.”

Technological Change May Slow Down

As much as we anticipate great technological changes to continue, such changes may not occur as fast as we expect. Take for example cloud technology. Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Amazon has reversed its long time policy of only offering cloud software services and is now pushing hybrid cloud systems and hardware.  Why? Because many businesses are not moving to the cloud as quickly as Amazon predicted and further, some never will. It is possible that business’ capacity to incorporate new technology may reach a temporary saturation point this year where adoption will slow until business practices can catch up.

Some believe that social media may hit a brief wall. “Why?” posited Mike Menkes, SVP, Analytic Partners, “Because fewer people are using social and/or are likely to decrease their usage during the upcoming election year.”  In addition, “Ad costs for social are going up. Brands should keep a close eye on their metrics and adjust spend based on where their users will be spending their time.”

Opportunities for Polymaths

Want to figure out the best career path? Want greater job security? Try Research and Data. And if you add a more qualitative skill set to that, like anthropology or even philosophy, your professional prospects should be unbeatable as you can combine right and left brain problem solving.  The ability to develop elastic thinking to tell stories culled from very disparate datasets are talents compiled from a range of different disciplines and experiences. New Year’s resolution – Take art class.

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Impeachment Hearings Were Big OOH Events According to Tunity

Tunity just released the results of the OOH usage for the Impeachment hearings that began on November 13, 2019 and were covered in total or in part on ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, and PBS. The topline results were covered in Tunity’s newsletter. 

In addition, Paul Lindstrom, Tunity’s Head of Research and Analytics offered these other, exclusive insights. To Lindstom, the impeachment hearings were as every bit as popular among OOH viewers as some major sporting events, attracting millions of viewers. 

Audience Performance

“Across the entire hearing each of the three cable networks drew substantially higher audiences than usual. I compared the hearing time periods to comparable ones for the week of Nov 4th.  Across the entire time CNN indexed 336 versus the benchmark week. Fox News indexed a 186 and MSNBC a 287,” he noted. The greatest increases in usage came from 18-49 and 25-54 year olds across all three networks. There was a gender skew, depending on the network. CNN increases were more likely to come from men while Fox News and MSNBC were more likely to come from women.

Viewing By Venues

Depending on network, viewers tended to watch the hearing from a range of venues. Across all three broadcast networks there was a greater percentage of OOH viewing coming from offices than compared to the benchmark week with the percent distribution indexing from 110 to 153 across the networks. 

Airports and other transportation centers made up a greater percentage of the OOH viewing to CNN and Fox News than the benchmark week with indices of 214 and 142 respectively. According to Lindstrom, “Overall CNN had a larger percentage of their OOH viewing coming from Hotels, Schools, Colleges, and Government Facilities than usual. Both Fox News and MSNBC received a larger percentage of their viewing from Bars and Restaurants.  Correspondingly all showed a substantially lower percentage of their OOH viewing coming from Gyms which is a prime OOH viewing location for news.”

He posited that, “Significant news events drive viewership in locations that might not usually have news on their screens or don’t have their screens on, thus allowing for a wider range of viewing opportunities.” But, he noted, the Impeachment hearings couldn’t compete with the Cohen and Kavanaugh Hearings, “both of which had substantially higher average audiences in the mid to upper 4 million range across all networks compared to 2.7 million for the first day of the Impeachment Hearing.”

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

Democratic Debates Strong Out of Home Performance

Viewers are interested in what the Democratic candidates for President have to say. At least that is what the out of home viewership data shows. According to Tunity, the performances of the two recent Democratic debates which aired at the end of July reached millions of viewers and improved over the strong performances of the first debates which took place at the end of June. 

Gains from June Debates to July Debates OOH

Tunity reported that the first set of Democratic Presidential debates (in Miami), which aired across NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo on June 26 and 27, averaged a combined 1.6MM and 2.1MM OOH viewers, respectively.  The second set of debates which aired on CNN on July 30 and 31 in Detroit gained +18.75% on night one and +9.5% on night two averaging 1.9 million and 2.3 million viewers respectively.  

The opportunity to view in home on three networks in June compared to one network in July resulted in an interesting in-home versus out of home comparison. Nielsen reported that in-home viewing of the July debates were lower than in June.  However, it was noted that the first July debate out-rated "America's Got Talent" on NBC, (averaging 7.9 million TV viewers) and the season finale of "The Bachelorette" on ABC, (averaging 7.4 million) in home.

Daypart and Demographic Performances

The July debates boosted CNN’s average prime OOH daypart performance. CNN's 8-11 PM OOH average for July 1-28 was 129,720.  Both debates skewed heavily male 25-54 in the out of home markets. On night one, the OOH viewership was 50% A25-54 and skewed 68% male and 32% female.   On night two, the viewership was 45% A25-54 and skewed 69% male and 31% female.

The July debates were hosted live from the Fox Theatre in Detroit and moderated by Jake Tapper, Dana Bash and Don Lemon.  Over the two nights, CNN’s Democratic debates ranked #1 out of all OOH programs.  The bulk of the OOH viewership for both nights occurred in gyms, restaurants and bars with 42% and 44%, respectively.

This article was first published in Cynopsis

Out of Home Scores a Goal for Women’s Soccer

Paul Lindstrom, Head of Research and Analytics, Tunity, made a startling discovery when data started pouring in for the Women’s World Cup soccer games. “I looked deeper at the numbers for several games and came up with a few conclusions which prove the high numbers are truly a phenomenon,” he stated.

Here are a few key insights:

Ø  Women’s soccer was a strong performer out of home. The U.S. versus England match was the #1 televised soccer game year to date OOH and was the tenth highest sporting event year to date at 8.5 million OOH viewers. The U.S. versus The Netherlands final delivered 6.9 million viewers.

Ø  Women’s soccer beats Men’s soccer. The U.S. versus England game as well as the final versus the Netherlands beat the 2018 men’s world cup final OOH which delivered 4.6 million viewers OOH.

Ø  USA vs. England ranks #10 among the top 20 sports shows of 2019, in a field dominated by football and basketball and during top championships like the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and NCAA Tournament.

Ø  Total OOH usage during the USA vs. France game (6/28/19, 7.8MM) was up +225% over the previous Friday, June 21. The game also ranked as the #1 and #2 program for OOH viewing for the week across every venue. During the game’s time period, the venue breakdown is as follows: 84% of total OOH usage, 91% of OOH viewing in bars/restaurants, 89% of OOH viewing in offices and 51% of OOH viewing in gyms where the primary focus is not necessarily on TV viewing.

Ø  USA vs. France was tied for the youngest OOH audience among a range of selected high-profile games and the male proportion of viewers remains high, in line with NBA and NHL OOH viewers, yet higher than events like the NBA Draft and The Kentucky Derby. The game is much younger than OOH usage as a whole and has a substantially higher percentage of men.

The numbers should continue to impress as the team prepares for next season. Stay tuned … no matter where you are.

This article first appeared in Mediapost.