Measurement in an Age of Data and Fragmentation

Obviously cross platform measurement in all of its forms is a hot topic now as the de-accreditation of Nielsen’s local and national TV measurement services by the MRC along with a highly fragmented media environment creates uncertainty and challenge.

I was curious as to what the industry as a whole was thinking on the subject and reached out to the Research Wonks, a forum for those involved in media and advertising research, analytics and data science, last week. The response was so large that it required two articles on the subject – one appearing in this publication and the other in Mitch Oscar’s Hocus Focus newsletter.

Measurement Currency – Looking Back and Looking Forward

When they say that the past is prologue, they must be thinking of media measurement. We’ve had a measurement currency (and by currency I mean a standard metric that can be used as a comparison point between companies and platforms) since the beginning of media which has helped guide the valuation of inventory to this day. But as the industry fragments, it can leave us with a sense of uncertainty as the new solutions that best address the new environment have yet to be agreed upon.

For Jeff Boehme, Chief Executive, Executive Media Consultants, the future of measurement is as fragmented as the number of platforms. "I have observed over the past ten years the industry has evolved to create and accept multiple currencies for media planning and buying out of necessity,” he noted and added, “Going forward, successful media executions now must include metrics of performance beyond age and gender to measure outcomes defined outside traditional frameworks. I believe we will continue to embrace multiple currencies, already available through various walled gardens, but need transparency and audited standards to provide the necessary confidence for longer term use.”

Howard Shimmel, President, Janus Insights and Analysis, is concerned that we can easily go off track by focusing on the past while the future looms large. “I worry that we're distracted trying to solve for 2012 research needs- fixing linear TV currency measurement- when what we really need to be focused on is a future state integrated planning/activation/measurement research infrastructure to incorporates all video channels- linear, addressable linear, AVOD, CTV,” he warned. “Building that infrastructure is hard- requires panels, first party data from walled gardens, common target audience definitions across platform, ability to integrate RF forecasts for linear and addressable media, segmentation schema that reflects the way that media is consumed,” he added.

Media Currency – Getting to a Strong Place

There are those optimists, like Radha Subramanyam, President and Chief Research and Analytics Officer, CBS, who are ready for the measurement challenge. “The media measurement industry is ripe for real market transformation,” she informed, “There are now multiple providers of trusted and high-quality data measurement across video platforms, and our own data is critical as well. The measurement marketplace is undergoing massive diversification.”

Yet, the path to currency is still open to discussion. For Michael Vinson, Chief Research Officer, Comscore, the primacy of long standing panels that the industry has relied upon in the past may be up for discussion. “Recruited-sample panels can either be used as the foundational element of a measurement, or to add additional context to a measurement based on large transactional data sets,” he began. But, “When panel response/participation/cooperation rates are in the 10 to 20% range, we can no longer pretend that the panel is in any sense representative of the population. Moreover, media fragmentation puts severe pressure on the size of a panel, beyond what can be plausibly afforded. Therefore, panels should only be used to add context to currency measurements, which should instead be based on large-scale, passively-collected data sets.”

It stands to reason that the best way to formulate industry adoption of a media measurement currency is to gather interested experts together as a working group. Whether this is a consortium of industry organizations such as the MRC or something patterned along the lines of a European JIC, is up for discussion. As Andrew Brown of Andrew Brown Associates, noted, “All vendors no matter how good their data will need 3rd party verification. All players will need third party syndicated solutions to put their 1st party data in competitive context.”

This article first appeared in www.Mediapost.com

 

Looking Back and Moving Forward. Interview with Howard Shimmel of Janus Strategy and Insights

Another research veteran is striking out on his own after an illustrious media career. Howard Shimmel, previously of MTV, Nielsen, AOL and most recently Turner, has formed his own consultancy, Janus Strategy and Insights.  Why that name? “Janus is a Roman God who looks to the future,” Shimmel explained, “but he does so that in a way that he can also keep a close eye on the past.” 

Merging the lessons of the past with strategies for the future is a good way to leverage Shimmel’s expertise to, as he stated, “to help the market move in a better direction and help emerging data research companies become bigger and more scalable.”

Charlene Weisler: What are the biggest challenges that media companies face today?

Howard Shimmel: Media companies are challenged with having to grow ratings, growing subscribers, fend off new competition such as Netflix, Amazon and Apple and grappling with consumer choice where the cable box is not necessarily the first choice for viewers. Now they can turn on their Roku device, they can go to their smart TV app menu on their TV. So the first challenge is how do media companies migrate to a new reality which could not be more different from the reality we spent most of our careers living in. On the emerging research company data side, it is figuring a way that they can come to market and position their product in a way that fits within the existing work streams of a media company, how is what they can provide additive to what the company is doing now as well as the net benefits. 

Charlene Weisler: Data management is pivotal. What have you learned regarding the best practices in managing all of the available data?

Howard Shimmel: A mistake that I think we make in the industry is that we tend to take the tools that we have always been using – Nielsen, MRI, Scarborough, Simmons, comScore – and put them in a very different bucket than the first, second and third party, digital, OTT and virtual MVPD datasets that we are now receiving. Companies need to think about a holistic data strategy where they are using each of those assets for its right use case and also finding ways to leverage across those assets. When you think about it, a network has great first party consumption data from their network apps. But all they are seeing is a very limited view of consumption. What they need the ability to do is find a way through data modeling or data appends to model linear consumption on top of the first party data, that which makes all of the applications they are looking to do with their over the top apps more powerful. So there is the issue of the siloing of datasets that need to be integrated and then there is the real day-to-day issue of how to leverage all of this data to better execute strategies.

Charlene Weisler: How far away do you think we are from a cross-platform measurement solution?

Howard Shimmel: If we think about our career arcs, there have been times when we’ve had great partnership relationships with measurement companies such as Nielsen and comScore, we’ve challenged them when they’ve needed to be challenged. One thing I think the media industry hasn’t done is really define what it means to have a cross platform solution. If you think about the heart of Nielsen’s Total Audience it really is the measurement of a program and get a complete view of a program across all of the platforms where it is available from linear TV, video on demand, digital, digital if it is through a provider like Hulu, digital on a network app. And the product scope is right to do that. But where Total Audience falls short is that we need a data ecosystem tool that allows us to see traditional linear spots together with digital addressable spots, to be able to plan those together, to be able to optimize those together, to be able to steward them together and then on the backend be able to measure their impact. There needs to be a forcing mechanism to get the industry to get together and decide what the system needs to do and then inform the measurement companies. 

Charlene Weisler: What should that forcing mechanism be?

Howard Shimmel: I think it should be the advertisers. They are the ones who are leaving ROI untapped because of the measurement challenges.  Bob Liodice at the ANA has been clear about this. If they lead, media and measurement companies have to fall in line and take their lead. 

Charlene Weisler: Looking forward, where do you see the media industry three to five years from now?

Howard Shimmel: I think we will get our measurement act together. Five years out I think we will do a much better job of stitching together linear, digital, over the top, virtual MVPD data together in a way where a media company has a way to take an advertiser, understand what their desired outcomes are and develop a plan that is not only geared to reach and frequency but is also geared to some sort of sales impact. You’ll see a lot more success among major media companies in terms of finding material direct to consumer businesses and ways to compliment the linear television ad model. Finally I think you will start to see all of the different content delivery systems – linear and digital and social- work together. We need to collaborate. As two industry leaders- Jack Myers and Dave Poltrack have stressed- we should be focused on finding ways to target below the line marketing dollars, not just fighting for share of existing media spend.

CIMM Cross-Platform Media Measurement and Data Summit

Fostering innovation in cross platform media measurement and bringing more granular measurement to TV have been missions for CIMM since its inception. Now, at the seventh annual Cross-Platform Media Measurement and Data Summit held last week in New York, CIMM is proving that hard work and deep analysis can result in industry change. Panelists from networks, agencies, brands, associations and data companies exchanged ideas on how the advancements in cross-platform measurement and data are impacting the industry ad model. 

CIMM has created a Measurement Manifesto which serves as a roadmap to ensure a continued industry focus on cross-platform measurement. As Jane Clarke, CEO and Managing Director of CIMM, noted, “We need to keep the dialogue going about how to manage change by following our roadmap to plan, measure exposure and evaluate. There is still more work to do but we are making progress.”

Highlights of the seventh annual summit include:

The Erosion of the Advertising Market and Upending of Business as Usual

According to Rishad Tobaccowala, Chief Growth Officer, Publicis Groupe, the advertising industry is in for a rude awakening. He said that the increasing ad loads and irrelevant messaging has been disrespectful to the consumers’ time. The result is that they are increasingly spending more time in ad free environments. Because of this trend, there will be “less and less advertising,” resulting in a 25% to 30% decline in ad inventory in the next five years as brands go direct to the consumer.There will also be consolidation among media companies resulting in fewer networks and,therefore, less inventory.

There are three Connected Ages, according to Tobaccowala. The first was the Link, the second was the advent of Social Networks and Smartphones and the third is now Connecting to Data with Artificial Intelligence. “Things are connecting to things with the IoT,” he stated. “There will be new ways of connecting through Voice, AR and VR which are coming to us much faster than anticipated and will lead to different ways to measure,” he added. While we are in the business of measuring impressions from programs or networks now, this will shift to measuring interactions of people.

Going For Good Rather Than Perfect in Attribution

Attribution is emerging as a primary goal for advertisers and networks. But there are so many aspects to attribution that achieving the perfect industry standard is a chimera. “There is the lie of attribution,” noted Joe Marchese, President Advertising Revenue, Fox Networks Group because “the human brain is more complicated. Brands are bought with cultural relevance.” There is also, what Scott Hagedorn, CEO, Hearts & Science, Omnicom Media Group, described as “negative attribution,” where an ad placed next to objectionable content becomes tainted. And it is important to give credit where credit is due. Brand value is accrued over the long term according to Marchese, so “if we move to pure attribution, it is the platforms that achieve all of the value.”

Overcoming Obstacles

Industry associations such as the ANA, 4As, ARF and MRC are all focused on addressing a range of industry challenges including solving for fraud, viewability, deduplication and data labeling for cross platform measurement. 

Bob Liodice, CEO, ANA, noted that his organization has made progress in the fraud area and in eliminating waste. “We are learning how to control fraud and rein in bots,” he stated. “It is increasingly complex but we are all asking the same question - Do I have the information necessary to make right decisions to grow business?” Scott McDonald, CEO and President, the ARF, spoke of the Sunshine Rule advocating transparency in measuring exposures through deduplication. “There is a gap between exposure and ROI sales lift and it is not well understood,” he stated. 

Cooperation Between Frenemies

“Fostering competition is the only way to get innovation,” stated Clarke. This is true in the area of measurement. Brain Hughes, SVP, Audience Intelligence and Strategy, MAGNA, believes that competition between measurement companies “makes for better thinking for problem solving and that  is not a bad thing.”

Yet there are some companies that are finding that cooperating with their competitors can bear fruit. OpenAP, a collaborative effort between Fox, Turner and Viacom is one effort designed to measure attention and engagement. “We need to get better thinking about how measurement correlates to outcomes. What viewability drives outcome and then build back to measurement standards from there,” advised Howard Shimmel, Chief Research Officer, Turner.

“Measurement is now a team sport. Cooperation is needed,” concluded Elissa Lee, Director Research, Advanced Technologies, Google.

This article first appeared in www.MediaVillage.com

1stFive Experience: The Wisdom of Youth and Senior Executive Advice

In an industry as exciting and as dynamic as ours, the question of the development of tomorrow's leaders becomes vitally important. What can we do to encourage and train the next generation of media executives? Helping to address that issue is Media Village.com's bold initiative called 1st Five, which recently held its fourth annual Summer Intern Experience at Horizon Media. The Experience collected all of the summer interns who worked in a range of media companies this summer to a meeting designed to offer advice, further encourage their interest, and elicit their feedback.

This year's event was the first to capture a majority of Generation Z participants who grew up with the internet. "You are in my opinion, the most singularly important generation in history because you are the generation that is on the cusp of one of the most important significant shifts in our culture, our society, our business, our civilization," noted Jack Myers, Founder of MediaVillage.com, "and we can learn a lot from you."

Executives from host companies Turner and Horizon, as well as Viacom, 4A's, and Meredith, participated on panels and spoke directly to the interns about their experiences. In one of the break-out sessions, Howard Shimmel, Chief Research Officer, Turner, spoke to a large group of interns on the value of data and a career in Research. "It's a great field and it's a growing field." He explained that as Gen-Z disrupts the media business with their new and different viewing patterns and technologies, it is Research that is trying to understand the disruption. Putting it all into context, he explained that "We are in a world where there is more data than ever. If you use Siri there is data. If you use Alexa there is data. Your phone knows where you are now. The people who win are the people who actually understand what that data is and what that data means, and what you do with that."

In turning to the interns, Shimmel found that they were excited about all the uses of data and how it could be applied to creative and advertising. Olivia, who interned at the Ad Council, found that it was "interesting to see how data and research were used to target PSAs and its evaluation on the backend with the data collected to ensure that the PSAs were hitting their specific target." Shimmel agreed and added that the increase in digitization in television is "enabling advertisers to do a better job of reaching people they care about and not reaching people they don't care about" with ability to capitalize ROI by better targeting. "The future of TV is addressable," stated Shimmel.

Not all internships are successful. One intern noted that while she was interning at a fashion firm, the company went out of business. Another felt uncomfortable in a company's culture which did not embrace his values and made him feel like an outsider. Shimmel advised students to choose their future employers as carefully as they themselves will be chosen: "You spend so much time at work that you want the company you work for to be a good match and a place where you can voice your opinion and be heard," he said.

When an intern finds the perfect company with a compatible culture and responsibilities that excite and interest them, it can become a launching pad to a long and successful career. Taylor, who interned at Nickelodeon, was excited about learning about SVOD and "how television tackles the digital competition," finding it "inspiring."

As much as the interns need a job, the media industry needs them. We need the fresh perspectives of Generation Z because TV is in a quandary according to Shimmel. Viewing patterns are changing and challenging the established business model. "How many of you watch on demand? Watch TV when you want to watch?" he asked. Most hands went up. "That is exactly the challenge we are dealing with," he concluded.

Privacy is not as big a concern to the interns as one might think, because the addressability of the ads appears to be welcome. "As for me," described on intern, "I hate to be watching a show and have ads come on that I/m not interested in and that don't relate to my life. I want to get ads that I actually use and can see what's out there."


The next step for these interns is to network, build on their contacts and hone their skills in the area of media that most excites them. Many gems of advice were offered. "Go into a job and evaluate what you like and dislike. If it doesn't work out you can figure out exactly what makes you unhappy," Shimmel noted. An intern suggested to "use your contacts. I always thought that my work speaks for itself but I realize that you need to reach out and ask for help." In a parting word of advice, Donna Speciale (pictured above with Howard), President, Turner Ad Sales, concluded, "Open yourself up to what is going on and don't have fear. Be strong in your convictions. Be confident. There are no rules so don't be afraid."

This article first appeared in www.MediaVillage.com